If simply one ask you the question that how long would a gambling casino be able to stay in business if most of the customers won instead of losing? It is quite an engrossing question. The markets are no different. For maintaining existence, the markets must function with such technique that causes most members to lose. There would not be enough money available to pay the winners if the majority were repeatedly taking profits out of the markets.
Gambling casinos have a plus point over the markets because they are liable to set the rules of the game to assure that the house has a precise boundary. The markets cannot directly control how the individual participants will play. Most traders are intelligent, competitive individuals. There are seemingly unlimited sources of information about how to trade. There are powerful computers within everyone's reach to help conquer the markets. Why is it then that such a high percentage of traders still end up losing?
A familiar reply is that traders cannot rise above their emotions well enough to succeed. That is certainly true. Another not as much of well-understood reason is that the markets constantly send out false information .But this does not means that the markets have any desire or that there is a planning among insiders "evil" floor traders to fool the rest of us. This is something that just happens because of the nature of markets.
Every time traders are not rewarded with a beneficial trade they do something right, nor are they castigated with a loss every time they do something wrong. This makes it exceptionally difficult to figure out what is right and what is wrong. Compare this to an electric fence. Every time you walk by and do not touch it, you feel fine. Every time you touch it, you receive a painful shock. It does not take a man or animal long to learn how to relate to an electric fence.
Think how much easier learning to trade would be if you automatically took a loss every time you failed to follow correct decision-making procedures. At the same time, what if you were always rewarded with a profit when you traded correctly? You would be able to learn the correct trading rules much more easily. One important piece of misleading information send by the opponents is that the market is continuously altering its behavior so the successful trader must be cautious to change his approach to keep pace.
Have you ever observed what a stable catchphrase this is from various trading experts? It is a ordinary piece of usual astuteness that no mechanical approach can be successful very long because the markets change. You are advised, therefore, to change your system to keep in tune with recent market behavior.
It is in the expert's selfishness to sermonize this gospel. Anyone who tells you that the markets are always changing no doubt has found a "solution" to how to keep his trading method up-to-date. He probably wants to sell it to you in one form or another. If he is not selling his system, he at least can appear incredibly wise and resourceful to his audience. It is a sure thing his audience has not found such an elegant solution to beating the markets or they would be rich and would not have to listen to any experts.
One more reason experts perpetually allege the markets are forever changing is that it is a suitable excuse for poor performance. Every successful trader has various periods when his system or method does not seem to work. It is more pleasant to say the markets have changed than my system is not working right now. If your system is not working, it implies you have failed. On the other hand, if the markets have changed, that is beyond your control. You can just "fix" your system. We are not saying the markets do not change. They clearly do. There is famous saying about the markets is, "The future will be just like the past, only different." However, make an effort to change your approach to "keep up" with this change is like a dog chasing his tail.
The purpose of this market wrong information is to cause people to be apprehensiveness of successful trading methods and discard them too soon. One of the most reliable traits of professional traders is the ability to stick with their system much longer than the typical loser. We all go through losing periods, no matter what type of approach we choose. We cannot increase our chances of success by constantly changing our approach. Since there are many more losing approaches than winning ones, we actually decrease our chances of success by frequently changing our system.
The correct solution is to find a non-optimized approach that works over a long period of history in a wide variety of markets. To avoid over-curve-fitting, use the same rules for all markets. If you can trade it for an extended period in the future in a wide variety of markets, you are likely to be successful, although success in never guaranteed.
Human nature is such that we are always trying to improve. I am not suggesting that you might not be able to create a better system in the future. Just do not fool yourself into thinking that it is better because it is somehow adapting to ever-changing markets. It is better because it is more profitable over a long period or because it trades more markets profitably.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Get The Secrets to Buy Low - Sell High, Buy High - Sell Higher
What goes down must come up
Various investors desire to pay low for a stock and hope that its price will sooner or later get higher. However, they are unsuccessful to comprehend that sometimes it is better to pay a higher price for a stock that has the impending for a future growth. The money you will save from purchasing a down stock may not justify your investment if the stock continues to get weaker.
Normally, investors fail to distinguish that the maxim stating that what goes down must come up and the vice versa, doesn't always hold truth. There are many exceptions back in the history.
If you follow this maxim, you will probably conclude that stock X is about to decrease. On the other hand, again under the maxim stated above, an investor may conclude that stock Y is about to make its big jump since its price is low and the stock market will recognize its strengths. Both assumptions may turn out to be completely wrong.
Buy High, Sell Higher
This approach is exceptionally recommended if you expect that the stock will continue to grow in the future. Thus, you should not be petrified by the high price. A stock that provides a stable percentage of growth is worth paying its higher price today, because if it continues to grow at this rate, its price will be even higher tomorrow.
You may almost certainly be disappointed that you haven't purchased the stock several months ago before its price has not jumped to the sky. However, if you make a careful research and verify that the stock possesses good potentials for future growth, then you should not be discouraged from investing in it.
Keep in mind that the stock's price will rise and fall in the short term, but over the long term a growth stock will move upwards.
Buy Low, Sell High
Many investors like better to search for bargain, which they can later sell at a higher price. However, if you decide to apply this strategy you should be well aware that the price of the stock may not rise again.
Value investors tend to look for stocks that are disregarded and underestimate by the stock market. However, price is only one of the factors that are part of their selection process. The key consideration made is whether the stock provides steady potential for future growth.
Last Advice
Avoid making investment decisions based only on the price of the stock because a stock that is down is not obligatory to go up. Additionally, a stock that is up may come down and may not. Look at the other metrics in order to make a more educated and successful decision.
Various investors desire to pay low for a stock and hope that its price will sooner or later get higher. However, they are unsuccessful to comprehend that sometimes it is better to pay a higher price for a stock that has the impending for a future growth. The money you will save from purchasing a down stock may not justify your investment if the stock continues to get weaker.
Normally, investors fail to distinguish that the maxim stating that what goes down must come up and the vice versa, doesn't always hold truth. There are many exceptions back in the history.
If you follow this maxim, you will probably conclude that stock X is about to decrease. On the other hand, again under the maxim stated above, an investor may conclude that stock Y is about to make its big jump since its price is low and the stock market will recognize its strengths. Both assumptions may turn out to be completely wrong.
Buy High, Sell Higher
This approach is exceptionally recommended if you expect that the stock will continue to grow in the future. Thus, you should not be petrified by the high price. A stock that provides a stable percentage of growth is worth paying its higher price today, because if it continues to grow at this rate, its price will be even higher tomorrow.
You may almost certainly be disappointed that you haven't purchased the stock several months ago before its price has not jumped to the sky. However, if you make a careful research and verify that the stock possesses good potentials for future growth, then you should not be discouraged from investing in it.
Keep in mind that the stock's price will rise and fall in the short term, but over the long term a growth stock will move upwards.
Buy Low, Sell High
Many investors like better to search for bargain, which they can later sell at a higher price. However, if you decide to apply this strategy you should be well aware that the price of the stock may not rise again.
Value investors tend to look for stocks that are disregarded and underestimate by the stock market. However, price is only one of the factors that are part of their selection process. The key consideration made is whether the stock provides steady potential for future growth.
Last Advice
Avoid making investment decisions based only on the price of the stock because a stock that is down is not obligatory to go up. Additionally, a stock that is up may come down and may not. Look at the other metrics in order to make a more educated and successful decision.
Character Quality of Value Investors
To be successful investors we need to develop the ability to keep emotions from corroding the advantages brought by the Value growth framework.
The following qualities are needed:
Independence of mind: The market is full of enticing underlying principle for the current agreement view. The Stock Market crowd has an inclination to chase a few lead like manic-depressive lemmings. Don’t accept Mr. Market’s judgment of value. Think independently. Gather facts, apply tests and standards, and vitally appraise the business using sound principles.
If you do all these things you will have self-reliance and valor that comes from knowledge, experience and sober reflection. It does not matter that the popular view is different to yours. Be prepared to cut yourself off from the crowd and zig when the rest of the market is zagging. Be prepared to think and to act unconventionally--to go with your own reasoning. Be somewhere that allows you to ponder the really important issues--get away from the day-to-day stock market stimuli. Don’t be demoralized by the ’professional investor’.
Remember: the vast majority of ’professionals’ fail to surpass their indices. The Value growth investor is far superior to most Stock Market analysts.
Capacity for hard work: Value growth investing requires full commitment. A good knowledge of strategic analysis, accounting, finance and economics are required. A willingness to spend time in scuttlebutt is necessary. The rewards of the Value growth method are huge, but it asks for constant toil. The ability to make decisions with incomplete information: In investment we are making judgments about the future. Owner earnings that are yet to occur cannot be stated with any great precision and yet we must still form a view. If you are uncomfortable with analysis based on shaky numbers and ball park figures; if you require facts that are provable before you can make a decision then you will not make a good Value growth investor. Investment is a probability-based art form. The successful investors tilt the odds in their favor.
Resistance against the temptation to speculate: Discipline is needed to stick to sound investing criteria. This is especially the case in bull markets when you see speculators making vast returns. Don’t be tempted to play catch-up hoping to get your money out before the crash and return to thorough-investigation-with-a-margin-of-safety-investing later. You are more likely to go down with the rest, as Fisher and Graham discovered in 1929. You must resist emotions and gut feelings. Like the dog in Aesop’s Fable stick with what you know to be good rather than lose it trying to grab for deceptively better offerings. Buffett is content to aim for 15% annual appreciation. Why should we think we can safely aim for more than that?
Patience, perseverance, fortitude and consistency: Value growth investors are not impatient to buy stocks. Stand on the plate and let the bad pitches pass by. Do not drop your standards. Patience, perseverance and fortitude are also needed when the stock price falls after purchase. Doubts about the wisdom of the investment start to appear. If you have done your homework and you are convinced that the stock represents good value then a falling price creates buying opportunities if you hold your nerve. Market pessimism is the friend of the investor, but it takes a strong will to stand against the tide of opinion.
Don’t be impatient to sell-- hold on to good stocks. It sometimes seems ages before the market recognizes the intrinsic value of a stock. If you hold on you can benefit from both rising earnings and an increase in the price-earnings ratio. On other occasions the price can rapidly appreciate and you are showing a good rate of return. The temptation is then to cash in your chips. This often needs to be resisted too. The best part of the return may yet be to come.
The Value growth investor is consistent in his or her investment activity. Do not switch investment styles. Have a regular routine of investment following best practice. Even following Value growth investment principles there will be down years. In these periods resist the temptation to give up and try the latest fashion. Also, consistency is needed in continuing to follow the story of the company. On a regular basis investigate if the story is still strong enough for you to hold.
Willingness to admit and learn from mistakes: Mistakes are bound to occur in investment. It is impossible to be right about companies all the time. In fact, excellent performance only requires us to be right six times out of ten. When a mistake does occur doesn’t sweep it under the carpet because you can’t bear to look at it and be reminded of your’failure’. Face up to it, examine it and learn from it. In this way the quality of your investment decisions will improve. Also, learn from the mistakes of others-- ’you can’t live long enough to make them all yourself’
The following qualities are needed:
Independence of mind: The market is full of enticing underlying principle for the current agreement view. The Stock Market crowd has an inclination to chase a few lead like manic-depressive lemmings. Don’t accept Mr. Market’s judgment of value. Think independently. Gather facts, apply tests and standards, and vitally appraise the business using sound principles.
If you do all these things you will have self-reliance and valor that comes from knowledge, experience and sober reflection. It does not matter that the popular view is different to yours. Be prepared to cut yourself off from the crowd and zig when the rest of the market is zagging. Be prepared to think and to act unconventionally--to go with your own reasoning. Be somewhere that allows you to ponder the really important issues--get away from the day-to-day stock market stimuli. Don’t be demoralized by the ’professional investor’.
Remember: the vast majority of ’professionals’ fail to surpass their indices. The Value growth investor is far superior to most Stock Market analysts.
Capacity for hard work: Value growth investing requires full commitment. A good knowledge of strategic analysis, accounting, finance and economics are required. A willingness to spend time in scuttlebutt is necessary. The rewards of the Value growth method are huge, but it asks for constant toil. The ability to make decisions with incomplete information: In investment we are making judgments about the future. Owner earnings that are yet to occur cannot be stated with any great precision and yet we must still form a view. If you are uncomfortable with analysis based on shaky numbers and ball park figures; if you require facts that are provable before you can make a decision then you will not make a good Value growth investor. Investment is a probability-based art form. The successful investors tilt the odds in their favor.
Resistance against the temptation to speculate: Discipline is needed to stick to sound investing criteria. This is especially the case in bull markets when you see speculators making vast returns. Don’t be tempted to play catch-up hoping to get your money out before the crash and return to thorough-investigation-with-a-margin-of-safety-investing later. You are more likely to go down with the rest, as Fisher and Graham discovered in 1929. You must resist emotions and gut feelings. Like the dog in Aesop’s Fable stick with what you know to be good rather than lose it trying to grab for deceptively better offerings. Buffett is content to aim for 15% annual appreciation. Why should we think we can safely aim for more than that?
Patience, perseverance, fortitude and consistency: Value growth investors are not impatient to buy stocks. Stand on the plate and let the bad pitches pass by. Do not drop your standards. Patience, perseverance and fortitude are also needed when the stock price falls after purchase. Doubts about the wisdom of the investment start to appear. If you have done your homework and you are convinced that the stock represents good value then a falling price creates buying opportunities if you hold your nerve. Market pessimism is the friend of the investor, but it takes a strong will to stand against the tide of opinion.
Don’t be impatient to sell-- hold on to good stocks. It sometimes seems ages before the market recognizes the intrinsic value of a stock. If you hold on you can benefit from both rising earnings and an increase in the price-earnings ratio. On other occasions the price can rapidly appreciate and you are showing a good rate of return. The temptation is then to cash in your chips. This often needs to be resisted too. The best part of the return may yet be to come.
The Value growth investor is consistent in his or her investment activity. Do not switch investment styles. Have a regular routine of investment following best practice. Even following Value growth investment principles there will be down years. In these periods resist the temptation to give up and try the latest fashion. Also, consistency is needed in continuing to follow the story of the company. On a regular basis investigate if the story is still strong enough for you to hold.
Willingness to admit and learn from mistakes: Mistakes are bound to occur in investment. It is impossible to be right about companies all the time. In fact, excellent performance only requires us to be right six times out of ten. When a mistake does occur doesn’t sweep it under the carpet because you can’t bear to look at it and be reminded of your’failure’. Face up to it, examine it and learn from it. In this way the quality of your investment decisions will improve. Also, learn from the mistakes of others-- ’you can’t live long enough to make them all yourself’
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
